Playoff glory is coming. With Crew SC knocking on the Major League Soccer postseason's door for the first time since hosting the 2015 MLS Cup Final — a lot is still up for grabs.
From a table perspective, Crew SC can realistically finish anywhere between third and sixth in the Eastern Conference to earn a postseason berth. Although no clubs have clinched through Week 26 of the regular season, Toronto FC (16-3-8, 56 points) and NYCFC (15-7-5, 50 points) appear to be locked into the top two seeds. The top four seeds in the Eastern Conference are guaranteed to at least host one MLS playoff match.
Crew SC enters its Sunday afternoon nationally televised cross-conference showdown with Sporting Kansas City in fourth place, with two points behind third-place Chicago and the fourth-place New York Red Bulls — with the two sides facing off on Saturday in Bridgeview.
Through a look at advanced data and league history by MLSsoccer.com's Benjamin Baer, Crew SC's magic number for points appears to be nine. Nine points to hit 51 points on the season in order to qualify for the 2017 postseason.
ColumbusCrewSC.com and Spectrum Sports Ohio have tracked FiveThirtyEight.com's probabilities that have the Black & Gold at 85 percent locks to qualify for the playoffs with solid and sound advanced mathematics.
While there is no definitive total to point at, a look at the last two MLS regular seasons have shown that it's likely that the points per game average of the No. 6 seed right now will be pretty close to what the No. 6 seed will have at the end of the season.
Eastern Conference |
Year |
No. 6 PPG average through 75% of season |
No. 6 PPG average at end of season |
|---|---|---|---|
2015 |
1.22 |
1.44 |
|
2016 |
1.23 |
1.24 |
According to this data, collected in MLSsoccer.com's piece by Benjamin Baer, for Crew SC to reach the playoffs in the East, it would need to collect 51 points.
A factor in being able to hit that goal is the difficulty of each team's remaining schedule. The higher the average in the below chart, the harder the schedule. Crew SC's remaining schedule includes:
- September 10 vs. Sporting Kansas City, 1 p.m. ET at MAPFRE Stadium
- September 16 at Vancouver Whitecaps FC, 7 p.m. ET
- September 23 vs. New York Red Bulls, 7:30 p.m. ET at MAPFRE Stadium
- September 30 vs. DC United, 7:30 p.m. ET at MAPFRE Stadium
- October 15 at Orlando City SC, 5 p.m. ET
- October 22 at NYCFC, 4 p.m. ET
Columbus and Atlanta are the best bets to qualify in the East (other than Toronto FC and NYCFC). Montreal would need to make a similar run to the one they had in 2015, while New England are looking to win six of their last eight to hit 51.
Below is more data from MLSsoccer.com's piece by Benjamin Baer:
Team |
Target |
Points Needed |
Games Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|
<strong>Columbus</strong> |
<strong>51</strong> |
<strong>9</strong> |
<strong>6</strong> |
Atlanta |
51 |
15 |
10 |
Montreal |
51 |
15 |
8 |
New England |
51 |
19 |
8 |
Philadelphia |
51 |
20 |
7 |
Orlando |
51 |
20 |
7 |
D.C. United |
51 |
23 |
7 |
Sunday’s match will be one of three remaining home matches of the 2017 regular-season. The Black & Gold have notched 10 wins at home, the most since the 2012 season (11). They have also won the last four consecutive matches at MAPFRE Stadium, whereas SKC have only won one of their last 10 MLS regular-season home games.
Crew SC is hosting the second edition of Pups at the Pitch. For only $35 you and your 4-legged friend can get a General Admission ticket in the lower sideline to watch Crew SC take on Sporting Kansas City on Sunday, September 10, at 1 p.m.
Prior to Kick Off you and your dog will have access to a designated dog park at MAPFRE Stadium.
